Players out of a million expected to win various bets

on the first, second, and third tries

Maybe you're thinking, "Hold the phone! More rounds means more chances and more winners." Correct. But this addresses how many players are expected to win within some number of tries, not the number predicted to win on each subsequent round.

Here's one way to use the table. Imagine a million roulette players with $200 each. Were they to bet it in one lump sum, you'd expect 26,316 to win $7,000 each and 973,684 to go bust. Were they to bet $100 on the first spin and quit if they win or put the other $100 up for the second spin, you'd expect 26,316 to win $3,500 each, 25,263 to net $3,400 each, and 948,061 to bite the dust. You can see the trend and its implications for a longer shot at a bigger return versus a greater chance at less profit.

High rollers with million dollar bankrolls, who stake it all on one bet, are exceptional. But you've probably seen folks buy-in with a few hundred dollars, who bet it all on a single round, and wondered what these heretics had in mind by flouting rules the gurus said were sacred. Now you know. The punters' poet, Sumner A Ingmark, commented on the contradiction in this resonant rhyme.

Behavior that at first seems rash,
Looks foolish if it leads to trash,
And crafty if it gets the cash.

(c) 2000, ICON/Information Concepts Inc

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