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PLAYING IT SMART by ALAN KRIGMAN
Worksheet to Estimate Bankroll Needs
Bankroll Estimation Worksheet for Roulette Example
| Factor |
Evaluation |
Result |
| Edge |
(5x2) |
10 |
| Rounds |
(100 x 0.07) |
7 |
| Volatility |
(Volatile: 64) |
64 |
| Confidence |
(95% confidence: 35) |
35 |
| Total |
(add results) |
116 |
Democrats as well as Republicans might want to know how I derived
the worksheet. I evaluated "risk of ruin" equations for a raft of
conditions, then used a "multiple regression" to get the
indicated constants. There's a wide margin of error, but it's not
critical because rational players would buy-in for something
convenient like $500, regardless of whether the actual suggested
bankroll was $10x46 = $460, $10x49 = $490, or $5x104 = $520.
Many solid citizens are surprised at the money needed for a high
level of confidence in surviving normal downswings. But no more
astonished than folks who start with less than their wagers
warrant and wonder where it all went. The latter mob might well
be motivated to mutter the mantra of the muse, Sumner A Ingmark:
A gambler shorthanded,
Is often left stranded.
(c) 2001, ICON/Information Concepts Inc
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