PLAYING IT SMART by ALAN KRIGMAN

When should you, and shouldn't you, worry about edge?

How much do typical differences in edge among alternate versions of games influence your chances in a session? The answer depends on what size and how many bets you make, or would make if you don't run out of moolah or moxie. It also hinges on the multiple of your loss limit you set as a profit goal; however, part of this also boils down to number of wagers because loftier aspirations need more bets of a given size to achieve.

Why is number of bets the key? The effect of edge is small in contrast to that of volatility over comparatively few trials. However, the impact of edge grows faster than that of volatility as duration increases. So edge dominates in the long haul.

Solid citizens normally think in terms of time, not number of resolved decisions. The two are related through the speed at which games progress. Here are some representative figures.

Roulette is a snail race; you might get 40 or 50 rounds per hour. Blackjack is intermediate; a table having four moderately experienced players betting one spot apiece would yield just over 80 rounds per hour. A reasonably proficient video poker buff can play a hand every 10 seconds; this totals 360 rounds per hour.

You can see the implications by picturing various 25-cent jacks-or-better video poker games, played for five coins per spin.

Say you find a "full pay" machine the bosses forgot to junk. The maximum-coin returns for unit bets on such a device are Royal: 800, Straight Flush: 50, Quads: 25, Full House: 9, Flush: 6, Straight: 4, Trips: 3, Two Pair: 2, High Pair: 1. House edge is a hair under half a percent. Standard deviation (loosely, the average change in your bankroll per spin -- up or down) is 4.42.

Make believe you have $200, want to play for at least three hours (1,080 spins), but will quit when your profit exceeds $500 or you lose your stake. You have 26.0 percent chance of earning $500 before going belly-up. And the probability you won't deplete your dough before completing 1,080 spins is 71.9 percent.

You're not apt to find video poker this good. But you may stumble on a game with the same pay schedule but returning 8-for-1 on a Full House. Edge nearly quadruples to 1.6 percent while standard deviation decreases slightly to 4.40. Your chance of winning $500 before losing $200 falls to 19.8 percent, and the prospect of staying in action for 1,080 spins declines to 69.5 percent.

Jacks-or-better at 8-for-1 on a Full House and 5-for-1 on a Flush is marginally respectable. Edge is 2.7 percent and standard deviation 4.39. Your shot at grabbing $500 before your fanny-pack is empty drops to 14.8 percent and that of still being at the button after 1,080 tries is 66.9 percent.

What about a shorter game? Pretend you had $100 stake, a $100 win goal, and plans to try for 100 rounds. On the half percent game, chances are 49.1 percent you'll reach your goal and 92.8 percent you'll last 100 spins. At 1.6 percent edge they're 46.7 percent you'll hit your target and 92.6 percent you'll be there for 100 rounds. On the 2.7 percent machine, it's 44.4 percent you'll hit at least $100 and 92.4 percent you'll endure for the 100 rounds.

These figures are summarized in the accompanying table.

Video poker session chances at three levels of house advantage

Edge

Chances of Reaching Goal

Chances of Surviving

.	1,080 Spins	100 Spins	1,080 Spins	100 Spins
0.50%	26.00%	49.10%	71.90%	92.80%
1.60%	19.80%	46.70%	69.50%	92.60%
2.70%	14.80%	44.40%	66.90%	92.40%

Edge matters, either way. But the more so as the interval of play increases. Unfortunately, this can lead to self-delusion. You may think of a new session as a fresh start. Sorry. Every time you gamble, you add to the number of bets on the big tally sheet in the sky. So, barring an extraordinarily rare gigantic jackpot, if you gamble often, against an edge, you're toast. Here's how the inimitable inkslinger, Sumner A Ingmark, depicted the dilemma:

In session by session volatility reigns,
But o'er gamblers' lifetimes, edge is sure to bring pains.

(c) 2007, ICON/Information Concepts Inc

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