PLAYING IT SMART by ALAN KRIGMAN

Are high-edge jackpot side bets really just for suckers?

Almost everybody loves jackpot-sized side bets. Bosses because these wagers have usurious house advantage and generate fat profits. Solid citizens because they promise, never mind rarely deliver, monster payoffs for what appears to be throw-away dough.

Owing to the edge and the extreme infrequency of big scores, most gambling gurus deride side bets. Players, however, ignore this scorn in droves. Who's right? The math mavens, based on the laws of probability that tell them how much money the joints expect to rake in and – by extension – the patrons to lose on them? Or the bettors, voting with their fanny packs, in a case of the phenomenon described by James Suroweicki in "The Wisdom of Crowds?" Namely, collective judgements made by groups of lay people are often superior to conclusions reached by experts.

The "super sevens" side bet at blackjack affords an example. This pays bettors whose first card is a seven, progressively more if their second and third cards are, too. Typical return schedules and chances of occurrence are given in the accompanying chart. The probabilities shown are for six-deck games in which no third cards are dealt when dealers have blackjacks, but payoffs are still made on the first two. The list of high payoffs will be prominently displayed at tables where the bet is offered. Don't bother asking the casinos to enumerate the low probabilities.

Parameters of the Super Sevens Bet at Blackjack hand payoff probability (one out of ...) one seven 3-to-1 14 two unsuited sevens 50-to-1 241 two suited sevens 100-to-1 867 three unsuited sevens 500-to-1 2,710 three suited sevens 5,000-to-1 66,667

The house has 12.6 percent edge on this bet and hits occur on roughly eight out of every 100 tries. In 500 $1 hands, the math says you'll lose 12.6 percent of $500 or $63 on the average. Alternately, figure that in 500 hands, you hope for three sevens although you know better than to count on it. But it's reasonable to anticipate about 500/14 or 36 $3 wins for $108, 500/241 or two $50 wins for $100, and zero or one $100 win for nothing or $100, respectively. This would be either $208 won and $462 lost for a $254 deficit, or $308 won and $461 lost for a $153 deficit. While a dollar a pop may not seem like much to risk for $5,000, a $150 or $250 shortfall per session may be distressing. And missing about 92 times out of 100 on the average is discouraging as well. This is why bets such as super sevens aren't games on their own.

What happens when a wager on the primary game is combined with $1 on super sevens? For most players who fantasize about a bonanza on a side bet, the decision criterion may be the likelihood of having enough money to keep in the running and get a shot at it.

Say you have a $200 bankroll and bet $5 per round at blackjack, nothing on the side. Your chance of enduring for 500 rounds is 87 percent. Add $1 on super sevens and this plummets to 32 percent.

Maybe you're a bigger sport and bet $10 on the primary game. With no side bet, a $200 bankroll has a 49 percent chance of lasting 500 rounds; $1 on the side drops this to 24 percent. The corresponding figures for a $500 bankroll are 91 and 58 percent. Go to a $25 main bet with a $500 bankroll. Here, without the side bet, you have 54 percent chance of being in the game for 500 rounds; the $1 side bet nudges this down to 48 percent.

The effect of the side bet diminishes as it becomes a smaller fraction of a main wager with lower edge and volatility. Playing with appropriate bankrolls for loftier limits, keeping the side bet constant, the impact doesn't go away but it declines. And the side bet, increasingly, takes on the role of chump change.

Is this to imply that these side bets are good ideas, at least under some circumstances? When your 20-20 hindsight reveals they were losers, or shows you pocketing the $5,000, you'll know the answer for certain. Ahead of time, the best you can do is weigh the facts you now have, and make your own trade-offs. Here's how the beloved bettors' bard, Sumner A Ingmark, saw such situations:

Oh how marvelous the world that would be within close reach,
By foreseeing in advance what experience will teach.

(c) 2008, ICON/Information Concepts Inc

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