PLAYING IT SMART by ALAN KRIGMAN

Should you seek out or avoid blackjack where dealers hit soft 17?

Blackjack buffs like to see a dealer's six-up. Especially when their own total is 16 or under. Rightly so. Six is the dealer's weakest starting card, the one most liable to lead to a bust.

However, when the dealer must stand on soft 17 (treating ace as an 11), solid citizens who've held from 12 through 16 against the six, or who've doubled and drawn garbage, face a moment of truth. If the dealer flips an ace, they're cooked. Of course, the dealer could have something other than an ace in the hole and triumph with 17 through 21, anyway. But that ace is what elicits the loudest moans, groans, and expletives best deleted.

Once upon a time, a few casinos offered a version of blackjack in which the dealer stood on hard 17 but drew when the same total was soft. You now see this rule fairly regularly. Intuitively, it seems like a boon for bettors. No matter what's in the hole, a dealer with six-up has to draw. A player's 14 or 15, for instance, stays in the running because the dealer could bust.

This turns out to be a case where intuition fails. Six-up does have a higher chance of busting when the dealer must hit, not stand, on soft 17. The figures with eight-deck shoes are 43.9 versus 42.3 percent, respectively. The prospect of the dealer busting with ace-up is also greater -- 13.9 percent hitting as opposed to 11.5 percent standing. So much for the good news.

Blackjack is more than just making a hand or busting. Sure, by stopping at 16 or below your only hope for a win is the dealer going over 21. The rule about hitting soft 17 helps there. When your total is between 17 and 21, a dealer bust is still dandy. But, if dealers don't display the decency to default this way, you'd like them to finish as low as possible.

Pretend, as an example, you've squeaked in with 17. You'll push a dealer's 17 and lose to 18, 19, 20, or 21. Or, maybe you're feeling your oats with 20. You'll beat a dealer's 17, 18, or 19; push 20; and lose only to 21. This is where the requirement that dealers hit soft 17 hurts you. As the accompanying table (also for eight decks) indicates, the dealer is more apt to wind up higher by hitting than by standing on this total.

Probability of alternate dealer totals with six -up, when dealer stands on or hits soft 17

total

stand

hit 17 16.60% 11.50% 18 10.60% 11.50% 19 10.60% 11.50% 20 10.20% 11.00% 21 9.70% 10.60% bust 42.30% 43.90%

When soft 17 must be hit, the smaller probability of finishing with 17 and the bigger at 18 through 21 offsets the chance of busting with six-up. The large difference at 17 is especially significant because this total is weaker than commonly imagined. A player's 17 pushes a dealer's 17 and loses to any other non-busting total. A player's 18 or above beats a dealer's 17.

The effect is stronger than may appear by simply comparing data across rows in the table. The percentages act cumulatively. Say you're at 18. If the dealer must stand on soft 17, your chance of a win is 16.6 + 42.3 or 58.9 percent (the dealer ends on 17 or busts). If the dealer must hit soft 17, your hopes are pegged at 11.5 + 43.9 or 55.5 percent. Likewise when you have 20. Your shot at beating a dealer who must stand on soft 17 is 16.6 + 10.6 + 10.6 + 42.3 or 80.1 percent. If the dealer must hit soft 17, it drops to 11.5 + 11.5 + 11.5 + 43.9 or 78.4 percent.

Maybe you believe that in the highly competitive casino biz, the bosses cleverly offer loss leaders to attract preferred patrons. Forget it. They don't prefer punters who know how to shave the edge to the bare minimum. They fancy folks who play poorly, or who will flock to fare that may be fun but give the house wide profit margins. As the cynical songster, Sumner A Ingmark, sagaciously stated:

New games you think you'll win quite readily,
More likely will deplete you steadily.

(c) 2008, ICON/Information Concepts Inc

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